The If-Then Conditional Statement

     In mathematics, a conditional statement is a form of logic that forms a hypothesis followed by a conclusion. Over my years of investing I have developed several if-then statements that could have yield big gains in one or more stocks. An example from long ago was that a particular tech company was experiencing large losses in a division outside of their main product line. My conditional statement read like this; "If company X sells off their PC division, then their earning and stock price will rocket up". I owned the stock but could have made lots of money by loading up on company X. I bring this up because at this time an opportunity may exist that could make some astute investors very wealthy. The U.S. economy is in the worst shape in its entire history by almost any measure, and some experts are saying that it is going to get worse before it gets better. We are experiencing the worst health crisis in over 100 years and the economic fallout may be even more damaging because of the corona virus. In this modern age of technology and medicine, we have become helplessly victimized in the space of just a couple of months. So what is this opportunity? What will return us to a more normal way of life where we can assemble in large crowds, board airlines, take cruises, and enjoy eating and drinking in restaurants again? In my opinion the answer lies in a safe and effective vaccine. I am looking at some of the hardest hit industries and setting a price that I am willing to pay for their stock. Before the latest earnings reports, some of the cruise lines, airlines, and gaming stocks were selling for bargain prices. Therefore my conditional statement looks like this; "If a vaccine is available this fall, then these companies will return to their previous valuations". I have counted over 10 large companies racing to develop this vaccine, with some in late stage large scale trials. I am betting that one or more will emerge with an effective vaccine. While any one of the pharma companies that develops the vaccine will be hailed as a champion, I have doubts about the financial gains such a cure will bestow on them. Holding all of humanity hostage for financial gain would be a reputational risk too large for most any company. Therefore the real beneficiaries will be those companies within industries hardest hit by this pandemic.