Sunday, July 12, 2020

Light My Fire

     "Light my Fire" was recorded by the Doors and sung by Jim Morrison in 1966. It was released as an Album in 1967 and the single soon turned gold in Sept of 1967. The song was rerecorded by Jose' Feliciano in 1968 and it too rose to #3 on the Billboard Hot 100 chart. I've been thinking about this song because there are some stocks I own that need to have a fire lit under them. They just can't seem to get any traction in this hot market. One of these is Cisco Systems (CSCO). I have owned this stock for a long time but I will not give up on it. It is a core holding for many large mutual funds and ETFs. CSCO currently sells for about $46.5 and trades at a reasonable multiple of about 17X. It pays a decent dividend which yields over 3%. Cisco produces switching equipment for the communication industry and is recognized as a supplier of quality and reliable goods. They also are into cyber security software and video conferencing technology which is in great demand during this pandemic. One competitor in this space is Zoom Video  (ZM) which pays no dividend, sells for $276/share and trades at an astronomical 1525X earnings. Many people are using the free version of Zoom which from what I am hearing is a very good product. The hope is that at some point businesses will convert to the paid version and Zoom will increase profits  which should lower the PE ratio. The market cap for ZM is about 78 billion while CSCO's is 197 billion dollars. Remember, the market cap is the total number of shares times the share price. Cisco's market cap is supported by many years experience in telecommunications, software, hardware and security software. while Zoom's market cap is supported by a very bloated stock price. Who will win this video conferencing war? I wish I knew but I intend to hedge my bet on Cisco by picking up some ZM at a lower price in the future. This same scenario is playing out in other industries such as pharma, food, fitness, and many others where young upstarts threaten older, established companies. In my effort to concentrate my holdings to some low risk investments that pay rich dividends, I want the companies I pick to stay relevant even when this pandemic ends. Therefore, I will be adding to my position in Cisco in the hopes that some of the heat from the competition will ignite Cisco's stock.

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