Tuesday, December 5, 2017

Growth vrs Value

     As a young man I took up the game of handball. We played outside at Wesselman Park almost every day. When I was first learning the game, I was practicing by myself when the best player in town showed up. He proceeded to teach me the finer points of the game. It seemed to him that I was playing the ball too close to him so we could volley longer. His advice was "hit it where I'm not". In other words, make him run for the ball. What's this got to do with investing in stocks? It seems that in today's stock market, everybody throws their money at just a few easy targets such as Amazon, Micron Technology, Alphabet, and so on. This is known as growth investing. The hope is that these stocks will just keep on going higher and higher and that the valuation doesn't matter. This trend has been going on for several years and lots of money has been made by doing what others do. But, some experts suggest that this style of investing is soon to go out of favor and that value investing is soon to be the rage. I believe in value investing for the most part. It's like hitting the ball where other investors aren't. The hope is that others will also discover these companies that successfully carry out their business plan every day and buy the stock which drives up the price. To be a value stock, the company must trade at a reasonable valuation as expressed by the P/E ratio, P/B ratio, PEG ratio and other measures of valuation. What really ices the cake is a good story about why the business is about to take off. Examples of this would be 1. Changing government regulation, 2. Changing consumer behavior, or 3. An exciting new product launch. Famous investors like Benjamin Graham and Warren Buffet are champions of the value style of investing. In today's schitzo market, what gets punished today is loved tomorrow and vise versa. This tells me that too much money is chasing too few stocks so the money makes quick circles around the growth stock names like a dog chasing his tail. Instead of focusing on the most recent quarter's earnings, value investors tend to have a longer view. When researching for my next value play I also look for a nice dividend that appears sustainable. The dividend payout ratio will tell you if the dividend is starving the company of necessary internal capital. In today's low interest environment, a 3% dividend will keep me interested until value investors wake-up.

1 comment:

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