Change

 One thing is certain in investing in stocks of companies and that is change. Change in the business of the company, change in the valuation, and change of management. I can't think of a single industry that isn't undergoing tremendous change right now. The computer industry is a perfect example. Back in the early 1980's, Apple computers were the rage. They had 64k of RAM and no hard drive. If you wanted to store your work, you bought an external 5 1/4 floppy drive. The whole outfit with a dot matrix printer cost well over $5000. Suddenly, IBM came out with the PC, causing the Apple 2E and 2C sales to plummet. I used to buy Apple computers at yard sales cheap and clean them up, add some software games, then resell them to people who thought they were left-out of the computer age. Then along came the Internet and some internet provider companies started offering  a free computer for signing a 2 year contract for dial-up internet.That ended my little enterprise abruptly.  Most midsize and large companies used to have what they called a"mini"computer to run their operations. It took up a huge air-conditioned room and cost hundreds of thousands of dollars. Now days, companies just contract with "cloud"providers who run the operations in huge data centers for a monthly fee. The makers of mainframes and minis had to scramble to find new businesses to keep the doors open. Any technology company that can't constantly reinvent itself will either be bought-out or die. Currently, some of the biggest names in tech are trying to stay pertinent by transitioning from a manufacturer or software provider to service providers. Microsoft, IBM, Hewett Packard,Cisco, Xerox and many others are searching for new sources of revenue. The auto industry is also undergoing a huge change. Soon, the autonomous car will be commonplace. It will run on batteries and get recharged from household current. Successsful investors of the future will have to determine which companies will benefit from the new products and changing consumer behavior. I have no idea who the winners will be but I will be watching to see how the established companies compete with nimble upstarts who will try to unseat them. Instead of trying to predict the eventual dominate player in a new technology, I would rather invest in the component supplier who makes a "must have" part that is critical to the technology. At the current time these component makers for cell phones are out of favor due to slowing growth in smartphone sales which has investors spooked. I don't see any alternatives to smart phones at this time so I will be adding to my positions of MU, LAM, and possibly NVDA for AI exposure and autonomous technology.